Time to sell oilseed rape?

Giles Cooper - Wilson Wraight

Oilseed Rape prices have risen from sub-£300 per tonne at the end of the old-crop marketing season to in excess of £325 per tonne for autumn movement of 2018 harvest crop.  This may be a good opportunity to sell uncommitted rape sooner rather than later due to a degree of uncertainty over coming months regarding soybeans, which generally set the trend for oilseed rape prices:

  1. The current US soybean crop is rated good / excellent and if that continues it could match last harvest’s record yields.  This would increase the exportable surplus significantly.
  2. US trade discussions have kept a dampener on prices and exports. Some clear progress and resolutions are required to keep exports of soybeans on track to meet USDA projections.
  3. China has detected several cases of the highly contagious African Swine Fever virus in recent weeks and there is concern it could spread into Southeast Asia.  China is the world’s largest pork producer and a drastic disruption to its production could alter the supply and demand balance for soya.